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https://anrows.intersearch.com.au/anrowsjspui/handle/1/16178 Record ID: 2777749d-4455-45a9-be26-fd9da91f9a98
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| DC Field | Value | Language |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.author | Thornton, Sara | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2022-06-30T23:24:10Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2022-06-30T23:24:10Z | - |
| dc.date.issued | 2017 | en |
| dc.identifier.citation | Online, 28 Aug 2017 | en |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://anrows.intersearch.com.au/anrowsjspui/handle/1/16178 | - |
| dc.language | en | en |
| dc.subject | Domestic violence | en |
| dc.subject | United Kingdom | en |
| dc.subject | Physical violence | en |
| dc.subject | Sexual assault | en |
| dc.subject | Prevention | en |
| dc.subject | Homicide | en |
| dc.subject | Policing | en |
| dc.title | Police attempts to predict domestic murder and serious sssaults : is early warning possible yet? | en |
| dc.type | Journal Article | en |
| dc.identifier.catalogid | 14797 | en |
| dc.identifier.url | https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41887-017-0011-1.pdf | en |
| dc.subject.keyword | Murder | en |
| dc.subject.keyword | Police | en |
| dc.subject.keyword | United Kingdom | en |
| dc.subject.keyword | Domestic violence | en |
| dc.subject.keyword | Homicide | en |
| dc.subject.keyword | Prevention | en |
| dc.subject.keyword | new_record | en |
| dc.description.notes | Abstract<br/ ><br/ >Research Question What facts known to police, if any, could have predicted the 118<br/ >domestic and family murders and near-murders in the Thames Valley (UK) police area<br/ >over a recent three-year period?<br/ ><br/ >Data Thames Valley Police records were examined for 118 victims and 120 offenders<br/ >in all 118 cases of Bdeadly^ domestic violence: murder, attempted murder, manslaughter,<br/ >and grievous bodily harm with intent in calendar years 2007, 2008 and 2009. Police<br/ >National Computer (PNC) and other records of police contact with those persons prior<br/ >to the cases identified for this prediction study were also coded, as well as the PNC<br/ >records of a case-control sample of 150 male and 100 female offenders in less serious<br/ >violent crimes. Local police risk assessments, including the DASH protocol, were<br/ >coded for deadly violence cases with prior police contact.<br/ ><br/ >Methods Risk assessments made during prior police contacts with domestic violence<br/ >cases during the time period were coded for accuracy of forecasts. Characteristics of<br/ >offenders and victims in deadly violence were also compared to characteristics of the<br/ >case-control sample, calculating the relative-risk ratios between the two groups for the<br/ >presence of factors that further research could explore as possible predictors of deadly<br/ >domestic violence.<br/ ><br/ >Findings In 55% of deadly violence cases, there was no prior recorded contact by<br/ >police with the victim; a further 21% of victims had only one prior police contact. Not<br/ >one of the 13 murder cases with any prior police contact had ever been assessed by<br/ >responding officers as Bhigh risk^ based on DASH or its predecessor, for a 100% false<br/ >negative rate of prediction on risk of murder and an 89% false negative rate for any<br/ >deadly violence (only 6 cases with prior contact had been classified as high risk). In<br/ >contrast, during the same time period, 2721 other domestic violence cases yielded<br/ >Bhigh-risk^ assessments but were not actually followed by deadly violence. Yet the<br/ >case control study found male offenders who committed serious domestic assaults were<br/ >over three times more likely than other violent offenders to be have had markers of<br/ >suicidal tendencies.<br/ ><br/ >Conclusions Predicting deadly domestic violence based on intelligence from prior<br/ >police contacts does not appear possible at present, given these findings that less than<br/ >half of these cases had prior police contact, and that when contact did occur, the<br/ >relationships were assessed by the DASH protocol or its predecessor as not high risk<br/ >in 89% of those cases. A more promising predictor for male offenders in these cases,<br/ >even without prior contact, may be a prior marker for suicide (ideation, threats or<br/ >attempts), but use of that marker requires further research on the extent to which it can<br/ >be identified before the deadly violence occurs, either from police contacts or other<br/ >sources, so that more intensive efforts can be undertaken to prevent deadly violence in<br/ >the truly high-risk cases.<br/ >Open access<br/ >See: https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs41887-017-0011-1.pdf | en |
| dc.identifier.source | Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing | en |
| dc.date.entered | 2017-09-05 | en |
| dc.subject.anratopic | Sexual violence | en |
| Appears in Collections: | Journal Articles | |
Files in This Item:
| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10_1007_2Fs41887-017-0011-1.pdf | 10_1007_2Fs41887-017-0011-1.pdf | 439.42 kB | Adobe PDF |  View/Open |
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