Geographic variability in homicide rates following the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

It has been demonstrated in a number of communities that the rates of serious crimes such as homicides and intimate partner violence have increased as a result of lockdowns due to COVID-19. To ascertain whether this is a universal trend the electronic autopsy files at Forensic Science South Australia, Adelaide, Australia, were searched for all homicides occurring between January 2015 and December 2020. There were 92 cases with 17 homicides in 2015 out of a total of 1356 cases (1.3%),18 in 2016 (18/1340 = 1.3%), 23 in 2017 (23/1419 = 1.6%); 14 in 2018 (14/1400 = 1.0%), 15 in 2019 (15/1492 = 1.0%) but in 2020 there were only 5 (5/1374 = 0.4%) (p < 0.02). Thus the incidence of homicides has fallen significantly in South Australia since the beginning of the pandemic. As the occurrence of serious crimes of violence and homicide has not followed a standard pattern in different communities it will be important to evaluate specific populations and subgroups rather than merely relying on accrued national data or extrapolating from one country to another. Pathologists, epidemiologists and health officials will need to specifically monitor local trends to understand more clearly what effects, if any, the pandemic has had on particular subgroups of deaths in order to more clearly understand causal relationships.