Actuarial assessment of domestic violence recidivism risk among custody-based males: The Domestic Violence – Triage Risk Assessment Scale (DV-TRAS)

Abstract

Aim<br/ >To develop an automated risk assessment tool that can be used to rapidly estimate custody-based DV<br/ >offenders’ likelihood of DV recidivism, using official administrative data that are routinely collected by<br/ >Corrective Services NSW.<br/ ><br/ >Method<br/ >The model development sample included all males in NSW who served a custodial sentence associated with<br/ >one or more DV convictions between January 2013 and June 2017 (n = 6,100). A series of regression models<br/ >were used to test predictors of DV recidivism and develop optimal estimates of recidivism probability. The final<br/ >model was validated using bootstrapping techniques and various tests of predictive validity.<br/ ><br/ >Results<br/ >Significant predictors of DV recidivism included age; alcohol and other drug problems; markers of a more<br/ >extensive general criminal history; being released without the possibility of parole; and Indigenous status, as<br/ >well as DV-specific variables such as prior sentences involving DV convictions and breaches of protection<br/ >orders. The final estimation model, which we named the DV-TRAS, showed acceptable discrimination<br/ >performance for DV recidivism (AUC = .660; 95% CI = .646-.675) that was significantly better than routine<br/ >assessments of general recidivism risk. Bootstrapping techniques indicated satisfactory stability of the model<br/ >across simulated samples.<br/ ><br/ >Conclusion<br/ >The DV-TRAS appears to be a viable tool to support case management decision making for custody-based DV<br/ >offenders in NSW. Key tests of predictive validity indicated accuracy in discriminating DV recidivists that was<br/ >significantly better than general risk assessments, and similar to that of established manual assessments of<br/ >offence-specific risk, while allowing for substantial time and resource savings in generating estimates.