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This article explores the challenges of policy coordination and development in a “VUCA” (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) world. Originating in military strategy discussions in the 1990s, the VUCA framework is now widely used to describe the increasingly complex global environment. The authors argue that this framework calls for public policy practitioners to rethink their approaches, blending traditional policy stability with new adaptive techniques to address emerging “wicked problems” — issues that are complex and resistant to straightforward solutions due to numerous interconnected variables.
To guide policymakers, the authors review five key policy theories:
- Incrementalism: This theory suggests that most policy changes occur through small, adaptive steps, as policymakers are typically risk-averse and face practical limitations in fully rational decision-making. Incrementalism reduces the potential for hasty mistakes and promotes stability, though it can be frustrating for those seeking rapid change.
- Multiple Streams Framework: Developed by John Kingdon, this approach conceptualises policymaking as the convergence of three streams — problems, policies, and politics. When these streams align, they create “windows of opportunity” for significant change. The framework acknowledges that policy change is often slow but allows for rapid shifts when key actors (or “policy entrepreneurs”) successfully merge these streams during critical moments.
- Punctuated Equilibrium: This theory, put forth by Baumgartner and Jones, highlights the interplay between periods of policy stability and moments of dramatic change. Policy issues can remain stable for long periods due to institutional resistance, but significant shifts occur when the status quo is challenged by external forces or crises. Advocates of change must create a sense of urgency by reframing issues to disrupt the prevailing stability.
- Advocacy Coalition Framework: Proposed by Paul Sabatier, this framework posits that policy change results from coordinated efforts by groups, or “advocacy coalitions,” that share similar beliefs and work across time to influence policy within specific domains. These coalitions interpret social, economic, and environmental events to shape decision-makers’ attention. Change occurs through both internal dynamics and external shocks that compel coalitions to adapt their strategies.
- Narrative Policy Framework (NPF): This framework views policy debates as structured narratives that shape political discourse. Narratives have characters (e.g., heroes, villains), plots, and morals, which influence public opinion and policy decisions. NPF highlights how policymakers, media, and advocacy groups construct and market these narratives to gain support for specific policy actions, thus guiding how complex issues are understood and addressed.
In presenting these theories, the authors advocate for an “evolutionary” approach to policymaking that builds on existing frameworks. By incorporating tools like artificial intelligence and scenario planning, policymakers can enhance their capacity for “fast policy triage” and anticipatory planning, improving resilience against future crises. The article concludes by emphasising that while the VUCA framework is useful, it should not lead to alarmism. Instead, careful, methodical adaptations in policy processes can enable governments to balance stability and adaptability, fostering public trust and effective governance in an unpredictable world.
