A meta-analysis of predictors of offender treatment attrition and its relationship to recidivism

Abstract

This meta-analysis reviews predictors of offender treatment attrition and examines its relationship to recidivism. Drawing on data from 114 studies representing 41,438 offenders, the study identifies demographic, psychological, and behavioural factors associated with dropout rates in offender intervention programs. The findings reveal an overall attrition rate of 27.1%, with higher rates observed in domestic violence (37.8%) and sex offender (27.6%) programs. Key predictors of attrition include younger age, prior offences, antisocial personality traits, intelligence levels, risk assessment scores, and treatment-related motivation. Treatment noncompleters were found to have a higher risk of recidivism, with effect sizes ranging from rw = .08 to .23. The study highlights the challenge of retaining high-risk, high-needs offenders in treatment and underscores the importance of tailoring interventions to enhance engagement and program completion.