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Record ID: 2d4c7c2e-7a10-4576-bc7f-cbb8cbf333d0
|Actuarial assessment of domestic violence recidivism risk among custody-based males: The Domestic Violence – Triage Risk Assessment Scale (DV-TRAS)
|Health, primary care and specialist service responses
|Corrective Services NSW
To develop an automated risk assessment tool that can be used to rapidly estimate custody-based DV
offenders’ likelihood of DV recidivism, using official administrative data that are routinely collected by
Corrective Services NSW.
The model development sample included all males in NSW who served a custodial sentence associated with
one or more DV convictions between January 2013 and June 2017 (n = 6,100). A series of regression models
were used to test predictors of DV recidivism and develop optimal estimates of recidivism probability. The final
model was validated using bootstrapping techniques and various tests of predictive validity.
Significant predictors of DV recidivism included age; alcohol and other drug problems; markers of a more
extensive general criminal history; being released without the possibility of parole; and Indigenous status, as
well as DV-specific variables such as prior sentences involving DV convictions and breaches of protection
orders. The final estimation model, which we named the DV-TRAS, showed acceptable discrimination
performance for DV recidivism (AUC = .660; 95% CI = .646-.675) that was significantly better than routine
assessments of general recidivism risk. Bootstrapping techniques indicated satisfactory stability of the model
across simulated samples.
The DV-TRAS appears to be a viable tool to support case management decision making for custody-based DV
offenders in NSW. Key tests of predictive validity indicated accuracy in discriminating DV recidivists that was
significantly better than general risk assessments, and similar to that of established manual assessments of
offence-specific risk, while allowing for substantial time and resource savings in generating estimates.
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